World Cup 2026

Ratings & probabilities

Explainable Elo-style team ratings and group-advancement probabilities for the FIFA World Cup 2026, recomputed from real results after every matchday.

Statistical estimates from public match results — educational analysis, not betting advice. Method is fully documented below.

Back to hub All matches Raw JSON

Next fixtures — model view

Mexico vs South Africa 2026-06-11 · Matchday 1
Mexico 26% draw 27% South Africa 47%
South Korea vs Czech Republic 2026-06-11 · Matchday 1
South Korea 36% draw 27% Czech Republic 37%
Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina 2026-06-12 · Matchday 2
Canada 30% draw 27% Bosnia & Herzegovina 44%
USA vs Paraguay 2026-06-12 · Matchday 2
USA 43% draw 27% Paraguay 30%
Qatar vs Switzerland 2026-06-13 · Matchday 3
Qatar 22% draw 26% Switzerland 52%
Brazil vs Morocco 2026-06-13 · Matchday 3
Brazil 54% draw 26% Morocco 20%
Haiti vs Scotland 2026-06-13 · Matchday 3
Haiti 49% draw 26% Scotland 24%
Australia vs Turkey 2026-06-13 · Matchday 3
Australia 36% draw 27% Turkey 37%
Germany vs Curaçao 2026-06-14 · Matchday 4
Germany 42% draw 27% Curaçao 31%
Netherlands vs Japan 2026-06-14 · Matchday 4
Netherlands 54% draw 26% Japan 20%
Ivory Coast vs Ecuador 2026-06-14 · Matchday 4
Ivory Coast 39% draw 27% Ecuador 34%
Sweden vs Tunisia 2026-06-14 · Matchday 4
Sweden 43% draw 27% Tunisia 30%

Group advancement probabilities

10,000 simulations of the remaining group fixtures. "Advance" = top 2 in the group, or one of the 8 best third-placed teams.

Group A

TeamWin groupTop 2Advance
South Africa 36% 63% 78%
Czech Republic 23% 49% 66%
South Korea 21% 45% 63%
Mexico 20% 44% 60%

Group B

TeamWin groupTop 2Advance
Switzerland 39% 66% 82%
Bosnia & Herzegovina 29% 57% 73%
Canada 17% 41% 59%
Qatar 15% 36% 54%

Group C

TeamWin groupTop 2Advance
Brazil 58% 83% 93%
Morocco 20% 52% 71%
Haiti 17% 45% 65%
Scotland 5% 20% 36%

Group D

TeamWin groupTop 2Advance
USA 30% 57% 74%
Australia 25% 50% 67%
Turkey 24% 49% 66%
Paraguay 21% 44% 61%

Group E

TeamWin groupTop 2Advance
Germany 29% 55% 72%
Ivory Coast 27% 53% 71%
Ecuador 24% 49% 66%
Curaçao 20% 44% 61%

Group F

TeamWin groupTop 2Advance
Netherlands 52% 78% 89%
Sweden 19% 46% 64%
Japan 18% 44% 61%
Tunisia 12% 32% 50%

Group G

TeamWin groupTop 2Advance
Belgium 45% 73% 86%
New Zealand 22% 47% 66%
Iran 19% 44% 62%
Egypt 14% 36% 54%

Group H

TeamWin groupTop 2Advance
Spain 57% 83% 93%
Uruguay 21% 52% 71%
Cape Verde 18% 47% 67%
Saudi Arabia 4% 17% 32%

Group I

TeamWin groupTop 2Advance
France 48% 75% 88%
Senegal 26% 55% 73%
Iraq 13% 35% 54%
Norway 13% 34% 52%

Group J

TeamWin groupTop 2Advance
Argentina 56% 81% 91%
Austria 17% 45% 64%
Jordan 14% 39% 58%
Algeria 12% 36% 54%

Group K

TeamWin groupTop 2Advance
Colombia 41% 68% 82%
Portugal 26% 54% 71%
DR Congo 17% 41% 59%
Uzbekistan 16% 37% 55%

Group L

TeamWin groupTop 2Advance
England 59% 84% 93%
Croatia 22% 56% 72%
Ghana 11% 35% 56%
Panama 7% 25% 42%

Team ratings

#TeamRatingRated matches
1 Spain 1696 21
2 Argentina 1656 22
3 Brazil 1651 25
4 France 1640 25
5 England 1640 28
6 Netherlands 1629 20
7 Colombia 1599 10
8 Belgium 1580 20
9 Uruguay 1575 15
10 Senegal 1573 11
11 Cape Verde 1554 5 provisional
12 Portugal 1549 18
13 Switzerland 1543 18
14 Germany 1540 18
15 South Africa 1540 7 provisional
16 Ivory Coast 1536 7 provisional
17 Morocco 1524 14
18 Croatia 1520 21
19 Ecuador 1519 7 provisional
20 Austria 1517 8
21 Sweden 1514 11
22 DR Congo 1507 7 provisional
23 Japan 1504 8
24 Bosnia & Herzegovina 1500 0 provisional
25 Curaçao 1500 0 provisional
26 Haiti 1500 0 provisional
27 Iraq 1500 0 provisional
28 Jordan 1500 0 provisional
29 New Zealand 1500 0 provisional
30 Norway 1500 0 provisional
31 Uzbekistan 1500 0 provisional
32 USA 1491 7 provisional
33 Czech Republic 1483 8
34 Iran 1482 6 provisional
35 Algeria 1482 3 provisional
36 South Korea 1477 7 provisional
37 Tunisia 1469 9
38 Mexico 1467 11
39 Turkey 1465 8
40 Australia 1463 7 provisional
41 Ghana 1460 6 provisional
42 Egypt 1454 7 provisional
43 Canada 1451 9
44 Paraguay 1447 3 provisional
45 Saudi Arabia 1438 6 provisional
46 Qatar 1436 3 provisional
47 Panama 1422 7 provisional
48 Scotland 1411 6 provisional

Methodology

  • Ratings: standard Elo (base 1500, K=35 historical / K=40 for WC 2026 results, margin-of-victory multiplier √goal-difference), computed in date order over 333 men's senior international results in the PlayersB open archive (FIFA World Cup 2018–2022 + historical entries, UEFA Euro 2020/2024, Copa América 2024, AFCON 2023; StatsBomb open data) plus 0 WC 2026 results to date (OpenFootball, CC0).
  • Match probabilities: Elo expected score with a draw share of up to 27% that fades as the rating gap grows. Knockout fixtures carry no draw (winner advances after extra time / penalties).
  • Advancement: 10,000-run Monte Carlo over the remaining group fixtures with a fixed seed (fully reproducible). Tiebreakers: points → goal difference → goals — FIFA's head-to-head criteria are approximated, not replicated.
  • Provisional teams have fewer than 8 rated matches in the archive (several 2026 debutants); their ratings carry high uncertainty.
  • Calibration caveat: cross-confederation comparisons are weakly calibrated — the archive's tournaments rarely overlap confederations, so teams that did well in their own continental championship can rate above what a global view would suggest. Ratings self-correct as WC 2026 results feed in.
  • Recomputed automatically on every data refresh. Machine-readable output: /data/predictions.json.

Last input refresh: 2026-06-10T08:10:19.738Z.